Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
5.5 miles North-West of Essex
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.5 miles North-West of Essex
34.8062°N, 115.2951°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of June 2026
Jun 04, 2026 05:11:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
464h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
153.5 km
53.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
24.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
15.9 km
Pred. 8.2 km vs actual 7.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d60f64c27bb3afd9dbb13da65989e2375a53f5a5a81cd7bab353053fc4e6aa16
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_131659_pred-34.81--115.30-20260604T0511
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 15, 2026 20:17:04 PST
Source Batch
20260515_131659_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:20.780960+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.