Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
6.4 miles South-West of Jawbone Canyon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.4 miles South-West of Jawbone Canyon
35.2736°N, 118.1378°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of June 2026
Jun 03, 2026 23:28:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
459h 11m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
32.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.76 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
11.1 km
Pred. 6.1 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
069b6f326b002cc115021683ad3189ce0649519f7c161ff2fcefca64ef431072
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_131659_pred-35.27--118.14-20260603T2328
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 15, 2026 20:17:04 PST
Source Batch
20260515_131659_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:20.780960+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.