Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
4.3 miles South-East of Gilroy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.3 miles South-East of Gilroy
36.9767°N, 121.4994°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of June 2026
Jun 01, 2026 10:54:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
398h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
53.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
28.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.33
Predicted M2.17 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
18.7 km
Pred. 8.6 km vs actual 10.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f586fb1291b8b5a7b26ca359ce6a2f2007520e59bf5dca52f0871f9d3e120d16
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_131659_pred-36.98--121.50-20260601T1054
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 15, 2026 20:17:04 PST
Source Batch
20260515_131659_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:20.780960+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.