Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
18.8 miles North of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.8 miles North of Warm Springs
38.4363°N, 116.5124°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of June 2026
Jun 01, 2026 18:04:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
405h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
54.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.02 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
11.0 km
Pred. 7.5 km vs actual 3.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0df01a9bf7fe8234ffad216edfbb592ab6db862ef9a21e0f2409e8245b25e77c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_131659_pred-38.44--116.51-20260601T1804
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 15, 2026 20:17:04 PST
Source Batch
20260515_131659_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:20.780960+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.