Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
18.8 miles North-West of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.8 miles North-West of Warm Springs
38.4350°N, 116.5166°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of June 2026
Jun 01, 2026 15:39:56 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
403h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
0.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
34.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.94
Predicted M3.24 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
8.9 km
Pred. 6.1 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9af0ae78fa5e90189cec97662df3c13790322b9b9485c77aa8a98135cf67284b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_131659_pred-38.44--116.52-20260601T1539
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 15, 2026 20:17:04 PST
Source Batch
20260515_131659_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:20.780960+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.