Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
13.0 miles South-East of Smith Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.0 miles South-East of Smith Valley
38.7383°N, 119.1132°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of May 2026
May 31, 2026 07:36:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
0.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
371h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
44.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
19.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.29
Predicted M2.29 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
8.3 km
Pred. 0.8 km vs actual 7.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
43a1f831a1e603524986fb05b723d753fc39a40e3f95d2cd723fcda35c247289
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_131659_pred-38.74--119.11-20260531T0736
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 15, 2026 20:17:04 PST
Source Batch
20260515_131659_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:20.780960+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.