Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
12.1 miles South-West of Fallon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.1 miles South-West of Fallon
39.3870°N, 118.9744°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of June 2026
Jun 03, 2026 23:44:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
459h 27m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
16.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.27 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
14.2 km
Pred. 6.1 km vs actual 8.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
64071f2af4a590437de67b07658ba8f7bd9d659fef6f207401a27c6007b2c32c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_131659_pred-39.39--118.97-20260603T2344
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 15, 2026 20:17:04 PST
Source Batch
20260515_131659_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:20.780960+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.