Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
1.9 miles North of Piercy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.9 miles North of Piercy
39.9932°N, 123.7767°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of May 2026
May 15, 2026 16:47:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
96.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.35 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
12.4 km
Pred. 2.8 km vs actual 9.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a658a803be8f4e313f3beae8c0daa99dcd216b87b68f30912f5f2bd55702fac3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_131659_pred-39.99--123.78-20260515T1647
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 15, 2026 20:17:04 PST
Source Batch
20260515_131659_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:20.780960+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.