Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
3.8 miles North-West of Aspendell
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.8 miles North-West of Aspendell
37.3782°N, 118.5706°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of June 2026
Jun 04, 2026 06:28:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
459h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
23.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
12.1 km
Pred. 5.6 km vs actual 6.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3b142f7305afd42cfc038a1f871886c75e501aaf13b3bde470538ef7b5fe1988
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_200202_pred-37.38--118.57-20260604T0628
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 03:02:05 PST
Source Batch
20260515_200202_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:24.379903+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.