Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
8.3 miles South-West of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.3 miles South-West of Warm Springs
38.1111°N, 116.5044°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of June 2026
Jun 04, 2026 13:03:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
466h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
76.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.42
Predicted M2.62 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
8.7 km
Pred. 5.6 km vs actual 3.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ecd34ed20ac89b14ee6924b3e668bf8968e870f31c9008cbb90572adcafd499c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_200202_pred-38.11--116.50-20260604T1303
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 03:02:05 PST
Source Batch
20260515_200202_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:24.379903+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.