Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
17.2 miles South of Weed Heights
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.2 miles South of Weed Heights
38.7387°N, 119.0629°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of May 2026
May 31, 2026 11:36:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
368h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
48.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.24
Predicted M2.24 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
17.3 km
Pred. 9.8 km vs actual 7.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
df0ff813686f8b50b4fa580cb6e28d31c20de213da521b627259f22035de8461
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_200202_pred-38.74--119.06-20260531T1136
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 03:02:05 PST
Source Batch
20260515_200202_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:24.379903+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.