Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
24.7 miles East of Covelo
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
24.7 miles East of Covelo
39.8984°N, 122.8029°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of May 2026
May 31, 2026 11:49:19 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
368h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
70.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.14 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
4.9 km
Pred. 2.4 km vs actual 2.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
49fa5c46e2165689eb1bb608fe41b4f4c37d90519175553be88cb2f7dc310090
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_200202_pred-39.90--122.80-20260531T1149
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 03:02:05 PST
Source Batch
20260515_200202_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:24.379903+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.