Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
3.8 miles North-West of Aspendell
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.8 miles North-West of Aspendell
37.3782°N, 118.5706°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of June 2026
Jun 04, 2026 05:26:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
458h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
23.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
12.1 km
Pred. 5.6 km vs actual 6.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1487fd3c39c95cacf297b24db3eb2a380c11cbb0ca1d78e36b7f70f8260c8eb7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_202405_pred-37.38--118.57-20260604T0526
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 03:24:10 PST
Source Batch
20260515_202405_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:27.877125+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.