Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
4.5 miles South of San Ramon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.5 miles South of San Ramon
37.7198°N, 122.0086°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of June 2026
Jun 01, 2026 21:36:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
402h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
136.1 km
36.1 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
2.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.32
Predicted M2.52 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
5.6 km
Pred. 5.6 km vs actual 0.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4237476c529c46b73428a50683bef8a399db69224e37aeea0a9505e688cd4a98
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_202405_pred-37.72--122.01-20260601T2136
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 03:24:10 PST
Source Batch
20260515_202405_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:27.877125+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.