Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
8.4 miles South-East of Malibu
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.4 miles South-East of Malibu
33.9693°N, 118.6493°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of May 2026
May 28, 2026 13:38:56 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
290h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
82.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.46
Predicted M2.46 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
19.0 km
Pred. 8.7 km vs actual 10.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
dd18393a7f851f65c320843de15020a09003d4cb6eb6de74a51d23d8f9c3de0b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_042145_pred-33.97--118.65-20260528T1338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 11:21:50 PST
Source Batch
20260516_042145_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:59.921715+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.