Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
4.2 miles South-East of Gilroy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.2 miles South-East of Gilroy
36.9799°N, 121.4989°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of June 2026
Jun 01, 2026 19:07:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
391h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
79.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
35.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
16.5 km
Pred. 6.5 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
01f1da703a63da51e6ce68ee3c63da7b62fc96ff030710956a8d9cc58241028c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_042145_pred-36.98--121.50-20260601T1907
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 11:21:50 PST
Source Batch
20260516_042145_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:59.921715+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.