Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
32.8 miles South-West of Eureka NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
32.8 miles South-West of Eureka NV
39.2825°N, 116.4992°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of June 2026
Jun 05, 2026 08:27:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
477h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
79.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.13
Predicted M2.33 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
8.3 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 3.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2429672e3c13c58cf86b446d27ef0de259eb76a274fb5d3fa27f4d7ed008c388
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_042145_pred-39.28--116.50-20260605T0827
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 11:21:50 PST
Source Batch
20260516_042145_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:59.921715+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.