Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
30.0 miles South-West of Eureka NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
30.0 miles South-West of Eureka NV
39.3124°N, 116.4617°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of June 2026
Jun 04, 2026 17:55:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
462h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
84.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.24
Predicted M2.44 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
9.6 km
Pred. 6.5 km vs actual 3.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
99a1d7b1ec5c835b2ddc9c5254bf4057299de728d9accdb1ac22d527cd54519f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_042145_pred-39.31--116.46-20260604T1755
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 11:21:50 PST
Source Batch
20260516_042145_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:59.921715+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.