Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
8.4 miles South-East of Malibu
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.4 miles South-East of Malibu
33.9693°N, 118.6493°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of May 2026
May 28, 2026 14:48:28 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
291h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
82.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.46
Predicted M2.46 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
19.0 km
Pred. 8.7 km vs actual 10.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
318305f8aa2f0a166c02698246799c1e58b4fdebbed07404effee37e002c23fa
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_043608_pred-33.97--118.65-20260528T1448
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 11:36:11 PST
Source Batch
20260516_043608_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:03.961671+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.