Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
4.2 miles South-East of Gilroy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.2 miles South-East of Gilroy
36.9799°N, 121.4989°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of June 2026
Jun 01, 2026 20:17:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
392h 41m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
5.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
46.6 h
10.6 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.5 km
Pred. 6.5 km vs actual 6.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
51eba9fa44084a81654463f4ae155aa16ee5f4ec3ecd8a4dc4050e7478424ab0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_043608_pred-36.98--121.50-20260601T2017
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 11:36:11 PST
Source Batch
20260516_043608_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:03.961671+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.