Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
19.0 miles North of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.0 miles North of Warm Springs
38.4467°N, 116.4849°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of June 2026
Jun 05, 2026 14:59:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
483h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
51.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.20
Predicted M2.4 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
9.6 km
Pred. 6.5 km vs actual 3.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e6f57f6b1063d6169b11864c391e8b3901cd823ca3f931abeefc3812c2c845b9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_043608_pred-38.45--116.48-20260605T1459
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 11:36:11 PST
Source Batch
20260516_043608_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:03.961671+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.