Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
11.4 miles North-East of Taft
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.4 miles North-East of Taft
35.2574°N, 119.3122°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 23:26:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1998h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
222.3 km
122.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
7.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.13
Predicted M3.23 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
22.8 km
Pred. 12.8 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
51f6b090473a0527b1d72f804453f96bc997890d8353e62a2e8913432a2c07a1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_093128_pred-35.26--119.31-20260807T2326
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 16:31:34 PST
Source Batch
20260516_093128_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:05.936034+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.