Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
7.0 miles West of Malibu
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.0 miles West of Malibu
34.0424°N, 118.9008°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 11:42:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
23.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2102h 4m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
45.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.82
Predicted M3.52 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
28.1 km
Pred. 23.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
42e42b94675a6b98d4501be6a954d963405182b509350d7cebe7875177220e56
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_143816_pred-34.04--118.90-20260812T1142
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 21:38:20 PST
Source Batch
20260516_143816_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:07.706004+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.