Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
78.5 miles West of San Simeon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
78.5 miles West of San Simeon
35.2520°N, 122.4994°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 23:26:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1993h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
188.4 km
88.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
7.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.13
Predicted M3.23 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
22.8 km
Pred. 12.8 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fff6a16e82cca8026c792094608ed750fa34e103dc18aa4d12a51a108e9493c2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_143816_pred-35.25--122.50-20260807T2326
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 21:38:20 PST
Source Batch
20260516_143816_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:07.706004+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.