Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
4.9 miles South-West of San Ramon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.9 miles South-West of San Ramon
37.7148°N, 122.0129°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of June 2026
Jun 15, 2026 22:44:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
721h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
98.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.50
Predicted M3.7 vs actual M2.2
- 0.50 over limit
Depth Error
11.3 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 0.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4171d6c6b164474ff14403fd85b8d21725cd3762fad9d0831c8637653b180266
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_143816_pred-37.71--122.01-20260615T2244
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 21:38:20 PST
Source Batch
20260516_143816_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:07.706004+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.