Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
3.9 miles West of Dublin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.9 miles West of Dublin
37.7124°N, 122.0056°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of June 2026
Jun 16, 2026 11:14:42 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
733h 36m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
143.6 km
43.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
16.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.55
Predicted M3.55 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
18.2 km
Pred. 12.8 km vs actual 5.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d5237291ce6637289840190b8825b6018d58ef175f71967bedcec33763e3ff2b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_143816_pred-37.71--122.01-20260616T1114
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 21:38:20 PST
Source Batch
20260516_143816_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:07.706004+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.