Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
3.9 miles West of Dublin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.9 miles West of Dublin
37.7124°N, 122.0056°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of July 2026
Jul 01, 2026 14:20:42 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1096h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
8.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
23.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.15
Predicted M3.55 vs actual M2.4
- 0.15 over limit
Depth Error
18.3 km
Pred. 12.8 km vs actual 5.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b1e60c0592c131aa21536bd2e953ee9eb4dc17f39101a795f64f07056ef6f8c1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_145438_pred-37.71--122.01-20260701T1420
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 21:54:43 PST
Source Batch
20260516_145438_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:10.434132+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.