Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
1.7 miles South-East of Grand Terrace
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.7 miles South-East of Grand Terrace
34.0104°N, 117.3004°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of March 2023
Mar 08, 2023 20:41:06 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
86.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.40
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
23.8 km
Pred. 12.8 km vs actual 11.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b279755c66be3059cb6ce520ac22ab2526381978a20f9094138263edb1c44b6e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_145809_pred-34.01--117.30-20230308T2041
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 21:58:14 PST
Source Batch
20260516_145809_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:12.177342+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.