Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
7.0 miles West of Malibu
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.0 miles West of Malibu
34.0424°N, 118.9008°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2023
May 22, 2023 08:40:06 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
23.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
224.1 km
124.1 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
13.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.92
Predicted M3.52 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
33.0 km
Pred. 23.0 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
29483740df83490842621a273bd3121fc9a7afe0014f5efc08ed59a321a0e51b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_145809_pred-34.04--118.90-20230522T0840
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 21:58:14 PST
Source Batch
20260516_145809_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:12.177342+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.