Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
78.5 miles West of San Simeon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
78.5 miles West of San Simeon
35.2520°N, 122.4994°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of May 2023
May 17, 2023 20:24:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
191.0 km
91.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.33
Predicted M3.23 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
17.8 km
Pred. 12.8 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b15200680e9f8b5fe7cb2e912bf91b80984df15b91344e03bf0d068fd7f85e5f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_145809_pred-35.25--122.50-20230517T2024
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 21:58:14 PST
Source Batch
20260516_145809_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:12.177342+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.