Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
100.7 miles South-West of Daly City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
100.7 miles South-West of Daly City
36.6086°N, 123.7000°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of May 2023
May 29, 2023 00:36:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
204.3 km
104.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.89
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
18.9 km
Pred. 14.9 km vs actual 4.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f7bc97bd88217db67e996a64acd5c8051cc76ae4e4759de16b7c9c065aa4c42f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_151842_pred-36.61--123.70-20230529T0036
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 22:18:47 PST
Source Batch
20260516_151842_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:15.845494+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.