Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
4.9 miles South-West of San Ramon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.9 miles South-West of San Ramon
37.7148°N, 122.0129°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of March 2023
Mar 25, 2023 19:42:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
24.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
28.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.40
Predicted M3.7 vs actual M2.3
- 0.40 over limit
Depth Error
22.8 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 12.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
48b8fd9d159ffba65e76fd983a16dcf114bf1492740ab36e4ed7607adcb577bf
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_151842_pred-37.71--122.01-20230325T1942
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 22:18:47 PST
Source Batch
20260516_151842_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:15.845494+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.