Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
60.0 miles South-West of Point Arena
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
60.0 miles South-West of Point Arena
38.4061°N, 124.5994°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2023
Aug 02, 2023 22:32:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
225.2 km
125.2 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
4.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.65
Predicted M3.45 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
35.5 km
Pred. 10.7 km vs actual 24.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
64a532a1b44748e0cfc0b432f2acda2429d1972c2ac991b61f0895bcd91be28a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_151842_pred-38.41--124.60-20230802T2232
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 16, 2026 22:18:47 PST
Source Batch
20260516_151842_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:15.845494+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.