Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
4.6 miles South-East of Carpinteria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.6 miles South-East of Carpinteria
34.3409°N, 119.4784°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of June 2026
Jun 02, 2026 15:33:51 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
393h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
145.8 km
45.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
9.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.13
Predicted M2.43 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
16.7 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 9.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c16deb0df7cc75beadc78b2e07a48c6175d91d6771190d5b2a6c815acbab0258
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_231753_pred-34.34--119.48-20260602T1533
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 17, 2026 06:17:59 PST
Source Batch
20260516_231753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:16.711379+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.