Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
22.5 miles North-East of Fort Irwin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
22.5 miles North-East of Fort Irwin
35.5539°N, 116.5028°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of June 2026
Jun 06, 2026 05:25:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
479h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
91.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.49
Predicted M2.89 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
9.8 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 2.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0cb111c89ec8c020b6d65e6a42212a7cb2b4f6d5a7acf2836f2eacbf8262055a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_231753_pred-35.55--116.50-20260606T0525
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 17, 2026 06:17:59 PST
Source Batch
20260516_231753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:16.711379+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.