Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
4.1 miles East of Gilroy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.1 miles East of Gilroy
36.9948°N, 121.4959°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of June 2026
Jun 02, 2026 13:23:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
391h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
6.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
29.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.26 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
13.2 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 6.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4b676c1cc0f996472eb3300c4514f09b51a6cd43ac031efe4ed7df188996fde6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_231753_pred-36.99--121.50-20260602T1323
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 17, 2026 06:17:59 PST
Source Batch
20260516_231753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:16.711379+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.