Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
18.4 miles South of Crystal Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.4 miles South of Crystal Springs
37.0995°N, 115.3305°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of May 2026
May 29, 2026 01:28:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
283h 10m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
3.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.61 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
18.8 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 11.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
597af7673acb6a5733981334bc9fcc1ff969026084a482328ec8c3ecbd575cb5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_231753_pred-37.10--115.33-20260529T0128
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 17, 2026 06:17:59 PST
Source Batch
20260516_231753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:16.711379+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.