Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
16.6 miles North-West of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.6 miles North-West of Warm Springs
38.4023°N, 116.5087°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of June 2026
Jun 04, 2026 07:08:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
432h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
52.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.13 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
10.3 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 3.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c05bbc65e74b83815ff848836d3a1571629e5e269aa90f2e3161ba54cb28804b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_231753_pred-38.40--116.51-20260604T0708
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 17, 2026 06:17:59 PST
Source Batch
20260516_231753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:16.711379+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.