Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
7.4 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.4 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.8026°N, 122.8129°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of May 2026
May 27, 2026 21:23:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
255h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
0.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.28
Predicted M2.02 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
4.6 km
Pred. 2.8 km vs actual 1.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
54724c911e601e81bfdd8fb932a75a6729cb4eee62d12a7f5b71ed83112ca5f6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_231753_pred-38.80--122.81-20260527T2123
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 17, 2026 06:17:59 PST
Source Batch
20260516_231753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:16.711379+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.