Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
12.8 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.8 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2476°N, 119.0966°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of May 2026
May 29, 2026 17:11:55 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
298h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
9.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
29.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.20
Predicted M2.4 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
17.5 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 10.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5bef53e5e4f112ad1a90949704fb9cab01ebafac005e9e48a8a02b86a0f308e2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260516_231753_pred-39.25--119.10-20260529T1711
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 17, 2026 06:17:59 PST
Source Batch
20260516_231753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:16.711379+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.