Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
18.9 miles South-West of Laguna Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.9 miles South-West of Laguna Beach
33.3182°N, 117.9711°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of July 2026
Jul 06, 2026 06:38:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1192h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
31.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.40
Predicted M3.6 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
16.2 km
Pred. 7.4 km vs actual 8.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
00500575134c1ddd0cc5475cd6381b3d00a0c363b682800b1091f7b4f6021ddf
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260517_064414_pred-33.32--117.97-20260706T0638
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 17, 2026 13:44:20 PST
Source Batch
20260517_064414_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:51.920681+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.