Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
63.2 miles South-West of Lompoc
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
63.2 miles South-West of Lompoc
34.1237°N, 121.3731°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of August 2023
Aug 20, 2023 13:44:22 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
204.1 km
104.1 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
8.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M3.43 vs actual M3.5
Depth Error
8.0 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 2.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6395f7860f228682b8594f1877ec870da94be404d87c854fa228e58997a612e5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260517_213159_pred-34.12--121.37-20230820T1344
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 04:32:04 PST
Source Batch
20260517_213159_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:55.477693+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.