Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
6.6 miles North of Basalt Junction
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.6 miles North of Basalt Junction
38.1402°N, 117.9296°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of August 2023
Aug 23, 2023 12:08:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
218.6 km
118.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
29.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.75
Predicted M3.25 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
11.3 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 5.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2840d9a5615e58ed6cac38abc5581430456bc1b6979c5ed9a27b3e9b3964e863
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260517_213159_pred-38.14--117.93-20230823T1208
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 04:32:04 PST
Source Batch
20260517_213159_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:55.477693+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.