Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
4.9 miles West of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.9 miles West of Calipatria
33.1475°N, 115.5941°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 08:44:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1900h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
91.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.93
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
26.1 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 20.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4bf70967655cf9457842d98c1bd45f206bf4f9e6b3b11317fca56874fc9f6775
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260517_214417_pred-33.15--115.59-20260805T0844
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 04:44:22 PST
Source Batch
20260517_214417_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:57.243100+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.