Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
4.9 miles West of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.9 miles West of Calipatria
33.1475°N, 115.5941°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of July 2026
Jul 20, 2026 20:46:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1528h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
68.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.73
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
17.6 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 11.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7b973f4269069aac51c52a26923596c56772c00573e6f72f85448f9bd035bf4a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260517_214604_pred-33.15--115.59-20260720T2046
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 04:46:09 PST
Source Batch
20260517_214604_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:58.151351+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.