Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
7.7 miles North-East of Weed Heights
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.7 miles North-East of Weed Heights
39.0595°N, 119.0578°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 00:21:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1867h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
12.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
25.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.11
Predicted M3.41 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
8.9 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 3.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b3f3d8a35c1db2578471f9302ac3ed59170cd2afb6342e69f759c13127a6b7a2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260517_214604_pred-39.06--119.06-20260804T0021
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 04:46:09 PST
Source Batch
20260517_214604_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:58.151351+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.