Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
4.9 miles West of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.9 miles West of Calipatria
33.1475°N, 115.5941°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of April 2023
Apr 29, 2023 17:44:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
4.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.13
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
8.9 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 3.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
34f9dec6a3d1c05d2c47551c073c60969fe279aa5bdb8783141200644183e0f3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260517_214748_pred-33.15--115.59-20230429T1744
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 04:47:54 PST
Source Batch
20260517_214748_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:59.055963+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.