Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
3.3 miles West of Malibu
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.3 miles West of Malibu
34.0307°N, 118.8369°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of August 2023
Aug 23, 2023 05:01:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
53.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.18
Predicted M3.62 vs actual M3.8
Depth Error
15.9 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8829fb62616fff8aa9fa84f6f7ab264f6f95cafcd15772dab7332cfaa63dddc2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260517_214748_pred-34.03--118.84-20230823T0501
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 04:47:54 PST
Source Batch
20260517_214748_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:59.055963+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.