Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
7.7 miles North-East of Weed Heights
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.7 miles North-East of Weed Heights
39.0595°N, 119.0578°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of May 2023
May 13, 2023 21:18:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
73.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.91
Predicted M3.41 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
20.9 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 15.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ef919fb73a5bb1495f6d99dd49dfad5087466022c25a4bf0087158887db63e5a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260517_214748_pred-39.06--119.06-20230513T2118
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 04:47:54 PST
Source Batch
20260517_214748_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:59.055963+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.