Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
48.2 miles West of Trinidad
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
48.2 miles West of Trinidad
41.1659°N, 125.0576°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2023
Aug 04, 2023 12:33:22 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
90.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.39
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
29.1 km
Pred. 4.7 km vs actual 24.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6aca57b151389eee3665b348c1cce2c29c7d21c8aa24a5ebea7cd91339a49a98
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260517_214748_pred-41.17--125.06-20230804T1233
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 04:47:54 PST
Source Batch
20260517_214748_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:59.055963+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.